tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-55960346105897347362024-03-12T19:58:42.127-07:00La-nina ModokiThe Friendhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14408774652079625695noreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5596034610589734736.post-43008797663477877572010-05-14T10:23:00.001-07:002010-05-14T10:23:44.779-07:00New Type Of El Nino Could Mean More Hurricanes Make Landfall<!-- end header --> <br />
<div id="title"> <div id="titleleft"> <div class="left"> <div id="titleleftcontent"><h1 style="color: black;"><span style="font-size: small;">Science News</span></h1></div></div></div></div><!-- google_ad_section_start --> <h1 class="story" id="headline" style="font-weight: normal;"> <span style="font-size: small;"><span class="date">ScienceDaily (July 3, 2009)</span> — El Niño years typically result in fewer hurricanes forming in the Atlantic Ocean. But a new study suggests that the form of El Niño may be changing potentially causing not only a greater number of hurricanes than in average years, but also a greater chance of hurricanes making landfall, according to climatologists at the Georgia Institute of Technology. The study appears in the July 3, 2009, edition of the journal <em>Science.</em></span></h1><div id="story" style="padding-bottom: 10px;"> <div id="seealso"> <hr /> <div style="margin: -5px 0pt 5px;"><strong>See Also:</strong></div><div style="padding-top: 5px;"><a class="red" href="http://www.sciencedaily.com/news/earth_climate/"><strong>Earth & Climate</strong></a></div><ul><li><a class="blue" href="http://www.sciencedaily.com/news/earth_climate/severe_weather/" rel="tag">Severe Weather</a></li>
<li><a class="blue" href="http://www.sciencedaily.com/news/earth_climate/hurricanes_and_cyclones/" rel="tag">Hurricanes and Cyclones</a></li>
<li><a class="blue" href="http://www.sciencedaily.com/news/earth_climate/environmental_issues/" rel="tag">Environmental Issues</a></li>
<li><a class="blue" href="http://www.sciencedaily.com/news/earth_climate/climate/" rel="tag">Climate</a></li>
<li><a class="blue" href="http://www.sciencedaily.com/news/earth_climate/global_warming/" rel="tag">Global Warming</a></li>
<li><a class="blue" href="http://www.sciencedaily.com/news/earth_climate/weather/" rel="tag">Weather</a></li>
</ul><div><a class="red" href="http://www.sciencedaily.com/articles/"><strong>Reference</strong></a></div><ul><li><a class="blue" href="http://www.sciencedaily.com/articles/e/el_nino-southern_oscillation.htm">El Niño-Southern Oscillation</a></li>
<li><a class="blue" href="http://www.sciencedaily.com/articles/a/atmospheric_circulation.htm">Atmospheric circulation</a></li>
<li><a class="blue" href="http://www.sciencedaily.com/articles/l/list_of_category_5_pacific_hurricanes.htm">List of Category 5 Pacific hurricanes</a></li>
<li><a class="blue" href="http://www.sciencedaily.com/articles/l/list_of_major_natural_disasters_in_the_united_states.htm">List of major natural disasters in the United States</a></li>
</ul></div>"Normally, El Niño results in diminished hurricanes in the Atlantic, but this new type is resulting in a greater number of hurricanes with greater frequency and more potential to make landfall," said Peter Webster, professor at Georgia Tech's School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences.<br />
That's because this new type of El Niño, known as El Niño Modoki (from the Japanese meaning "similar, but different"), forms in the Central Pacific, rather than the Eastern Pacific as the typical El Niño event does. Warming in the Central Pacific is associated with a higher storm frequency and a greater potential for making landfall along the Gulf coast and the coast of Central America.<br />
Even though the oceanic circulation pattern of warm water known as El Niño forms in the Pacific, it affects the circulation patterns across the globe, changing the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic. This regular type of El Niño (from the Spanish meaning "little boy" or "Christ child") is more difficult to forecast, with predictions of the December circulation pattern not coming until May. At first glance, that may seem like plenty of time. However, the summer before El Niño occurs, the storm patterns change, meaning that predictions of El Niño come only one month before the start of hurricane season in June. But El Niño Modoki follows a different prediction pattern.<br />
"This new type of El Niño is more predictable," said Webster. "We're not sure why, but this could mean that we get greater warning of hurricanes, probably by a number of months."<br />
As to why the form of El Niño is changing to El Niño Modoki, that's not entirely clear yet, said Webster.<br />
"This could be part of a natural oscillation of El Niño," he said. "Or it could be El Niño's response to a warming atmosphere. There are hints that the trade winds of the Pacific have become weaker with time and this may lead to the warming occurring further to the west. We need more data before we know for sure."<br />
In the study, Webster, along with Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Chair Judy Curry and research scientist Hye-Mi Kim used satellite data along with historical tropical storm records and climate models.<br />
The research team is currently looking at La Niña, the cooling of the surface waters in the Eastern and Central Pacific.<br />
"In the past, La Nina has been associated with a greater than average number of North Atlantic hurricanes and La Nina seems to be changing its structure as well," said Webster. "We're vitally interested in understanding why El Niño-La Niña has changed. To determine this we need to run a series of numerical experiments with climate models."<br />
<div style="float: left; padding: 10px 0pt; width: 150px;"><em>Email or share this story:</em></div><div style="float: right; margin: 0pt; padding: 10px 50px 0pt 0pt; width: 150px;"> <!-- AddThis Button BEGIN --> <div class="addthis_toolbox addthis_default_style"> <span class="addthis_separator">|</span> <a class="addthis_button_expanded" href="http://www.addthis.com/bookmark.php?v=250&pub=sciencedaily">More</a> </div><script defer="defer" src="http://s7.addthis.com/js/250/addthis_widget.js#pub=sciencedaily" type="text/javascript">
</script> <!-- AddThis Button END --> </div><hr /> <strong>Story Source:</strong><br />
<blockquote>Adapted from materials provided by <a class="blue" href="http://www.gatech.edu/" rel="nofollow"><span id="source">Georgia Institute of Technology</span></a>, via <a href="http://www.eurekalert.org/" rel="nofollow">EurekAlert!</a>, a service of AAAS.</blockquote><hr /> <div id="citationbox" style="background-color: #eeeeee; margin-top: 15px;"> <form action="#" method="post"> <label>Need to cite this story in your essay, paper, or report? Use one of the following formats:</label> <div style="margin: 5px 0pt 0pt;"> <div id="citationformat"> <input checked="checked" id="citationapa" name="citebutton" onclick="citation()" type="radio" value="apa" /> APA<br />
<br />
<input id="citationmla" name="citebutton" onclick="citation()" type="radio" value="mla" /> MLA </div><div id="citationtext">Georgia Institute of Technology (2009, July 3). New Type Of El Nino Could Mean More Hurricanes Make Landfall. <em>ScienceDaily</em>. Retrieved May 14, 2010, from http://www.sciencedaily.com<span style="font-size: 1px;"> </span>/releases/2009/07/090702140835.htm </div></div></form><em>Note: If no author is given, the source is cited instead.</em><br />
</div></div><!-- end story --> <div id="related" style="margin-bottom: 0pt; padding-bottom: 0pt;"> <div id="photo"> <div style="padding: 0pt 5px;"><div style="-moz-background-clip: border; -moz-background-inline-policy: continuous; -moz-background-origin: padding; background: rgb(255, 255, 255) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; border: 1px solid rgb(153, 153, 153); font-size: 11px; font-style: italic; margin: 5px auto; padding: 2px; position: absolute;"><img align="middle" alt="" height="12" src="http://www.sciencedaily.com/images/magnifier.png" style="margin-top: -3px;" width="12" /><a href="http://www.sciencedaily.com/images/2009/07/090702140835-large.jpg" rel="thumbnail">enlarge</a></div></div><a href="http://www.sciencedaily.com/images/2009/07/090702140835-large.jpg" rel="thumbnail"><img alt="" border="0" height="259" src="http://www.sciencedaily.com/images/2009/07/090702140835.jpg" width="300" /></a><br />
<div id="caption" style="padding: 5px 0pt 10px;"><em>The 2008 hurricane season was one of the most active on record. In this image, taken on August 28, 2008, three storms can be seen in various stages: Fay, Gustav and Hannah. (Credit: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)</em></div></div><h2 class="block">Related Stories</h2><hr style="margin-bottom: 0pt;" /> <div id="relatedstories"> <div><a href="http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/04/070403172305.htm"><img alt="" border="0" class="floatLeft" height="50" src="http://www.sciencedaily.com/images/2007/04/070403172305-thumb.jpg" width="79" /></a> <strong><a class="blue" href="http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/04/070403172305.htm">Very Active 2007 Hurricane Season Predicted</a></strong> <span style="color: #666666;">(Apr. 3, 2007)</span> — The U.S. Atlantic basin will likely experience a very active hurricane season, the Colorado State University forecast team announced today, increasing its earlier prediction for the 2007 hurricane ... > <a class="red" href="http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/04/070403172305.htm"><em>read more</em></a></div><div><a href="http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/04/080409133718.htm"><img alt="" border="0" class="floatLeft" height="50" src="http://www.sciencedaily.com/images/2008/04/080409133718-thumb.jpg" width="80" /></a> <strong><a class="blue" href="http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/04/080409133718.htm">'Well Above-Average' Hurricane Season Forecast For 2008</a></strong> <span style="color: #666666;">(Apr. 10, 2008)</span> — The Colorado State University forecast team upgraded its early season forecast saying the U.S. Atlantic basin will likely experience a well above-average hurricane season. The team's forecast now ... > <a class="red" href="http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/04/080409133718.htm"><em>read more</em></a></div><div><a href="http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/11/081129124902.htm"><img alt="" border="0" class="floatLeft" height="50" src="http://www.sciencedaily.com/images/2008/11/081129124902-thumb.jpg" width="64" /></a> <strong><a class="blue" href="http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/11/081129124902.htm">2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season Sets Records</a></strong> <span style="color: #666666;">(Nov. 30, 2008)</span> — The 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season officially comes to a close on November 30, marking the end of a season that produced a record number of consecutive storms to strike the United States and ranks as ... > <a class="red" href="http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/11/081129124902.htm"><em>read more</em></a></div><div><a href="http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/08/080808114131.htm"><img alt="" border="0" class="floatLeft" height="50" src="http://www.sciencedaily.com/images/2008/08/080808114131-thumb.jpg" width="66" /></a> <strong><a class="blue" href="http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/08/080808114131.htm">NOAA Forecasts Even Stronger Atlantic Hurricane Season For 2008 Than Earlier Prediction</a></strong> <span style="color: #666666;">(Aug. 8, 2008)</span> — In the August update to the Atlantic hurricane season outlook, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has increased the likelihood of an above-normal hurricane season and has raised the total number of ... > <a class="red" href="http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/08/080808114131.htm"><em>read more</em></a></div><div><a href="http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/09/090908103625.htm"><img alt="" border="0" class="floatLeft" height="50" src="http://www.sciencedaily.com/images/2009/09/090908103625-thumb.jpg" width="66" /></a> <strong><a class="blue" href="http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/09/090908103625.htm">Tornado Threat Increases As Gulf Hurricanes Get Larger</a></strong> <span style="color: #666666;">(Sep. 10, 2009)</span> — Tornadoes that occur from hurricanes moving inland from the Gulf Coast are increasing in frequency, according to researchers. This increase seems to reflect the increase in size and frequency among ... > <a class="red" href="http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/09/090908103625.htm"><em>read more</em></a></div></div></div><!-- end related --> <h2 class="headleft"><a class="red" href="http://www.sciencedaily.com/subscribe/">Search ScienceDaily</a></h2><em></em>The Friendhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14408774652079625695noreply@blogger.com0